Wednesday, March 14, 2007

The Rule of 72 & the magic of Compound Interest

Compound interest has the power to turn your seemingly small mound of money into a large mountain given sufficient time and the right rate of return. David Bach does a great job of illustrating this (among other things) in his book The Automatic Millionaire.


Here's a really powerful idea. And you can actually start your teenagers doing this, because parent -- if a child is earning any income at all, they can put it into a Roth IRA; $2,000 a year if they do it from the age of 14 and they stop at age 18, they are going to have over $1,184,000 at age 65. That's unbelievable.

Now, what if you waited a little bit longer? What if you waited, say, until you were age 19? Well, it's still pretty good. You can put $2,000 a year away, do it for eight years. Stop at the age of 27. Never put another dollar away. You'd have over $1 million at age 65. That's the miracle of compound interest.... At 27, you actually have to fund this account every single year for 39 years. You'll have $883,000, but you've put a lot more money away, you had to do it for 40 years almost.

So there is a couple of messages here that are very important. First of all, start young, obviously... [and] Start today. You know, it's not timing the market; it's getting in the market that matters. - David Bach



The rule of 72, put simply, merely provides an approximation of the time needed in an investment at a given rate of return in order for it to double in value thanks to the Magic of compound interest. For example, the rule of 72 states that $1 invested at a 10% interest rate would take approximately 7.2 years ((72/10) = 7.2) to turn into $2.




Ok, so it's not really magic, in fact it's not even super accurate (especially with large investments), but is a great tool for approximation. In my opinion compound interest and the Rule Of 72 should be taught in every school. Everyone should understand this basic formula for financial success before they start working, investing, and spending their money.

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Another beating at the hands of the Subprime lenders

Today the market (the whole market... more or less) took another beating at the hands of the DREDED Subprime lenders. The Dow was down a bit at mid day, but the mortgage delinquencies number, that was reported at noon ET, was higher than expected, and the market has been in a selling off since. At the close, the Dow had dropped over 240 points for the day.

Today on Jim Cramer's Mad Money, in a segment called Subprime Strikes Again Cramer reminds us that one sector does not make an entire market, and while the market took a hit today we as "home gamers" can take the opportunity to pick up some great stocks at bargain prices

...don’t damn the whole market. This is a subprime problem only. The Street is wrong to be so indiscriminate in its selling, but that’s how the game is played... Bottom line, every sector got trashed today, and that’s just plain wrong. You’ve got a chance to pick up great merchandise at low prices. -Jim Cramer
Bottom line: The subprime market will continue to be a train reck for the foreseeable future, but there are bargains to be found in the other sectors and the market WILL recover.

Saturday, March 3, 2007

Jim Cramer’s Mad Money - VICE vs. NICE

In the closing segment of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money this Friday, Cramer sais that when it comes to stocks "Nice guys finish last". To illustrate this point Cramer reviewed the two funds; the Socially Responsible Stock Fund, and the Vice Stock Fund.

"You can take your stocks from evil companies and invest them in good causes, but you can't do anything with your non-profits from companies with good-guy behavior" - Jim Cramer

Socially Responsible Stock Fund:

Starbucks Corporation SBUX 29.88 -0.51 (-1.68%) 22.44B
General Mills, Inc. GIS 55.50 -0.62 (-1.10%) 19.16B
NIKE, Inc. NKE 103.86 -1.43 (-1.36%) 26.17B
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD 14.18 -0.61 (-4.12%) 7.78B
Motorola, Inc. MOT 18.64 -0.19 (-1.01%) 45.06B
The Timberland Company TBL 26.51 -0.35 (-1.30%) 1.65B
Intel Corporation INTC 19.22 -0.37 (-1.89%) 110.84B
Agilent Technologies Inc. A 30.72 -0.72 (-2.29%) 12.44B
International Business Machines Corp. IBM 90.90 -1.37 (-1.48%) 136.85B
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. GMCR 56.05 +0.08 (0.14%) 432.73M

Vice Stock Fund:

Altria Group, Inc. MO 83.48 -0.86 (-1.02%) 174.96B
Diageo plc (ADR) DEO 77.01 -0.99 (-1.27%) 52.18B
British American Tobacco (ADR) BTI 60.80 -0.85 (-1.38%) 62.70B
Reynolds American, Inc. RAI 59.66 -0.73 (-1.21%) 17.64B
Imperial Tobacco Group PLC (ADR) ITY 81.04 -0.81 (-0.99%) 27.45B
Las Vegas Sands Corp. LVS 84.41 -3.50 (-3.98%) 29.91B
MGM MIRAGE MGM 69.16 -2.52 (-3.52%) 19.64B
Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN 93.63 -3.40 (-3.50%) 9.51B
International Game Technology IGT 40.45 -0.51 (-1.25%) 13.68B
Constellation Brands, Inc. STZ 19.49 -0.57 (-2.84%) 4.57B

over the last year the Socially Responsible Stock Fund fell by 4%, while the Vice Stock Fund increased by 30%. Wow lets hear it for addiction!

Rule #1 Investing

What is Rule #1 Investing?

Phil Town's book Rule #1: The Simple Strategy for Successful Investing in Only 15 Minutes a Week! appears to be yet another get rich quick story, but once you get past the subtitle... and the rule itself... you will find that the book is founded on solid theory and contains a lot of helpful and easy to understand information.

... And what is The Rule? According to Phil Town “There are only two rules of investing: Rule #1: Don’t lose money, and Rule #2: Don’t forget Rule #1.” Okay, this is a bit oversimplified and a bit reminiscent of Fight Club (...the first rule of Fight Club is - you do not talk about Fight Club. Second rule of Fight Club is - you do not talk about Fight Club) but if you stay tuned and read on, it is founded on solid theory as I said above.

Rule #1 Investing is rooted in the investment philosophy of Columbia University’s Benjamin Graham (author of The Intelligent Investor), and popularized by Graham’s students, including the Oracle of Omaha himself Warren Buffet (probably the most successful investor of all time). In fact Rule #1 comes from Warren Buffett’s first rule of investing, "Don’t lose money" and in the book Phil Town explains some of the basic tenets of the Warren Buffett "Value investing" method in simple, easy to understand language.

Rule #1 provides specific formulas for calculating the fair price or “sticker price” for a company, and describes how to evaluate the investment potential of a business. In a nutshell you would look for companies that:

  • You would be proud to own, you are passionate about, and that you understand.
  • Have a wide moat (i.e. a competitive advantage, a huge cash reserve, or an exclusive license or other barrier to entry).
  • Have an excellent management team.
  • That you can buy with a margin of safety (i.e. the stock is priced so low that even if you miscalculate its “sticker price” you’re not likely to lose money).

And unlike many other investment strategies, Rule #1 also describes couple signs for when it is time to sell:

  • When a company has lost it’s moat or “ceased to be wonderful”.
  • When the stock price moves above the sticker price.
The strength of Phil Town's book Rule #1 book is that it provides detailed instructions on how to go through the stock evaluation process using common investment information sources, such as Yahoo! Finance and MSN Money.